4Place profile · Uzbekistan
Urgench
Khorezm Region · 41.550°N, 60.633°E · 91 m
Khorezm oasis on the lower Amu Darya near historic Khiva; completely dependent on upstream river discharge.
Development follows historical patterns; emissions stay near current levels to mid-century then decline. Often treated as the closest analogue to stated national policies.
What changes by 2040–2059
Indicators
Baseline 1995–2014 against 2040–2059 under SSP2-4.5.
Every pathway, every horizon
Warming in the annual mean, relative to 1995–2014. The columns barely differ in the 2020s and diverge sharply by the 2090s — that divergence is the part still open to choice.
The shape of the year
Monthly climatology at Urgench, 1995–2014 against 2040–2059 under SSP2-4.5. Hover any month for its values.
Temperature
Precipitation
Trajectory, 1950–2100
National annual mean temperature, 11-year smoothed. Hover any year to read every pathway at once; click a pathway in the legend to isolate it. Uzbekistan-wide rather than local — the archive publishes continuous time series only as spatial aggregates.
From climate signal to consequence
These are physical pathways, not predictions. Each chain ends with what would actually be required to quantify its endpoint — which this platform does not attempt.