2Compare · Uzbekistan
How much is uncertain, and why?
Hold the place fixed. Three factors shape the answer — the emissions pathway, how the 30 models differ, and how far ahead you look.
Tashkent (Tashkent City) · 41.30°N, 69.24°E
Uncertainty about Policy Pathway
Same place, same models, same horizon — only the emissions assumption changes. This gap represents policy choices, not model error.
Uncertainty between 30 Downscaled Models
Same place, same pathway, same horizon — thirty different global climate models from international modeling centers.
Uncertainty about when
Near-term change is largely determined by emissions already released. The pathways separate later — which is why the same map looks very different at 2030 and at 2090.
CMIP5 and CMIP6 are not the same thing
Older studies and datasets use RCPs. They are not interchangeable with SSPs, and matching the forcing number is not the same as matching the scenario.
CMIP5
2010–2014IPCC AR5 (2013/14) · RCP scenarios
Forcing pathways only — no socio-economic narrative attached.
CMIP6
2016–2021IPCC AR6 (2021/22) · SSP scenarios
Forcing pathway combined with a socio-economic storyline that also sets aerosol and land-use forcing.
Next· step 3 of 4
Hotspots
Where is change most extreme?